'It's got to be time for change': Three months until crucial Welsh elections

The Welsh Parliament stands in what was known as Tiger Bay - a multicultural melting pot during the 18-1900s, home to around 50 nationalities working the docks.

The area remains diverse.

Outside Togayo Cafe we get chatting to Somali-born friends Omar Mohammad and Abdiqadir Mohamoud, who settled in Cardiff in the 90s and early 2000s.

"They talk about immigration like every immigrant that comes here is a bad immigrant," Omar tells me - as we discuss the opinion-poll rise of Reform UK in Wales.

The latest one puts Nigel Farage's party second behind Plaid Cymru, with Greens third and the long-dominant Labour battling for fourth place with the Conservatives.

If it's right, it'll be a political earthquake for a country that has been led by Labour since devolution began - and long before that.

"We're immigrants, we're working, we pay our taxes, and most of the people who come here want a better life. They're not here to destroy this country, they're just here to make their families better."

He says he'll vote Labour - and definitely not Reform: "Because that'll be the last time I'm here then - I'll probably be sent back, sent back!"

But Abdiqadir feels the immigration debate has been blown out of proportion.

"They are fuelling the people who are against immigrants - that is a problem. I think there is an exaggeration in immigration in this country."

'Labour promised so much'

Forty-five minutes north into the heart of the Welsh Valleys - and you reach the Gurnos Estate in Merthyr Tydfil.

Nearly two years ago, Reform leader Nigel Farage came here; it is one of the most deprived areas of Wales.

He was launching his 'contract' with the British people - and chose the estate as an example of what he believes are failures by decades of Labour governance in Wales.

Friends John Hobby and Peter James are Merthyr born and bred.

I ask them if they feel it's time for change.

"It's got to be time for change, isn't it? It can't get any worse. It's got to get better," says Peter.

"People of Merthyr voted these people in. And for me they're not doing anything for the people of Merthyr."

John reveals he'll vote Plaid.

"Because I got no trust in Labour. Because they're not looking after the country - they're bringing people in who's not supposed to be here, taking money from people who are working and people on benefits - taking money from them and giving it to them and giving them houses and God knows what man - not giving us nothing."

There is disillusionment here - but not just with Labour in Wales.

U-turns in Westminster are on people's minds as they prepare to vote.

"Keir Starmer definitely impacts the way I vote in Wales," Kevin Williams tells me.

He says Labour in Westminster has been a "disappointment" and he's lost faith in the party.

"With Reform, they seem to have conviction. The Labour government doesn't seem to have any convictions. He seems to be a weak prime minister.

"Labour promised so much, they were so encouraging, but they haven't kept any of their promises. Not one."

'I think we're looking for another identity'

This is a post-industrial land - where political loyalty is up for grabs.

But party allegiance is not what it once was, according to former miner Ceri Thompson, now a curator at the Big Pit Museum in Torfaen.

"It's often difficult to think back to this, how powerful the trade union was and with that, then the politics and people actually believed, I think, perhaps more in politics than they do today," he says.

"I think we're looking for another identity because the identity was all about coal-tips, rugby clubs, headgears, coal, singing miners, and it's got to change. I've noticed more of a Welshness creeping in."

In the very north of Wales - on the island of Anglesey - is the political home of Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid Cymru's leader, who hopes to become the next first minister of Wales.

Helen Holland has been a teacher in Llangefni, a town near the centre of the island, for 38 years. She's a Plaid supporter who says Welsh identity and language is hugely important in this election.

"Well goodness me, that is what we are. We are Welsh and everything about us.

"Our language is part of our heritage and why can't we do things in our own language like the French or the Spanish... then hopefully we have a chance that the language will continue with our children."

Does she feel it is dying sometimes?

"Of course it is."

There is a problem in Wales when it comes to young people leaving - census data shows more than half of the country's local authorities lost more people aged between 18 and 29 years old than they gained.

A lack of industry and jobs is noticed by 38-year-old chief Adam Hughes.

"A lot of my friends have moved away. A lot of my close friends have moved to Australia. I got friends that went to university, got degrees, came back, couldn't get work so have to emigrate abroad again. Unless you've got a solid trade, jobs are scarce around here."

He seems disillusioned - and admits he probably won't vote in May.

"From what I can see the end result is the same, particularly not here, maybe some parts of the country, but in North Wales, where I live here, I never see any change that affects our lives - so why bother is my general opinion."

Back in the Valleys - and there is fresh hope among the next generation.

Scott James' great-grandfather was a miner - now he has set up the Coaltown Coffee company in the town of Ammanford.

They have two branches and sell into Selfridges.

"Our ethos here is to prove a point. It's trying to prove that anything can be done in the post-industrial towns - they shouldn't be forgotten about."

He says it's "really important" to retain as much talent as possible.

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"We have some phenomenal people, phenomenal education around this area... and to see them leave from where they're from, not because they're not happy living here, just because they're looking for opportunities, is really sad to see."

'I'm pessimistic that anything will actually change'

This is no normal election for Wales - there are big changes coming; a reformed voting system, a change in constituencies and an increase in the number of politicians.

For new mum Lauren from Cardiff, the NHS is her priority, with waiting lists remaining among the highest in the UK.

"I just think obviously health needs some more money invested into it, reduced waiting times for patients, access to GP appointments as well.

"I always vote, with the hope something is going to change. But I'm a bit pessimistic that anything will actually change.

"It would be nice, wouldn't it, to vote for a party and they actually follow through with the plans which they said they were going to put in place."

Peer into the Senedd building in Cardiff Bay and you can see the millions of pounds worth of building work under way to accommodate an extra 36 members of parliament being elected this May.

Who'll take the most seats - what the shape of power will be - is all to be decided.

(c) Sky News 2026: 'It's got to be time for change': Three months until crucial Welsh elections